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Goldman Sachs reaffirms Google phone's failure

Zach Epstein


Google Nexus One performance has fallen well short of preliminary sales estimates - is all hope lost?

Published on Mar 12, 2010

Following our feature article discussing low Nexus One sales estimates and the glaring shortcomings of Google's marketing strategy, Goldman Sachs is now reaffirming the Nexus One's position as a failed experiment thus far.

The well know investment banking and securities firm has chopped a massive 71% from its initial Nexus One sales projections for 2010, reducing its estimate from 3.5 million to 1 million. Even if Google adds a second model to its catalog, Goldman Sachs still only sees 2 million combined units being sold during 2011, ZDNet.com reports.

We previously estimated that Google might sell 3.5 mn Nexus One units in 2010. Initial data-points were disappointing, possibly due to limited marketing and customer service challenges. Flurry estimated (based on mobile traffic) that Google sold 20,000 in the first week, and 80,000 in the first month, both annualizing to 1.0 mn. We forecast that Google sells 1.0 mn Nexus One units in FY2010, benefiting from US carriers other than T-Mobile, and non-US carriers such as Vodafone, promoting the device too, but suffering from limited marketing activity. We assume that Google rolls out a second Nexus handset, markets it more aggressively, and makes it available offline, and therefore forecast that Google sells 2 mn handsets per year in 2011 and future years. — Goldman Sachs

It's never a bad idea to get the blogosphere buzzing about a hot new smartphone, but Google's direct-to-consumer efforts thus far have been a big miss. Thanks to a lack of advertising and marketing in general coupled with Google's decision to forego carrier sales, the typical American consumer simply doesn't know that the Nexus One exists.

All hope isn't lost just yet, however. With a Verizon-compatible version on the way, an AT&T variant that may be sold in stores to follow, and a Nexus Two brewing in the distance, Google can't be counted out just yet. Goldman Sachs' outlook is still bleak at best even with increased marketing efforts and carrier-assisted sales, but we believe Google can still find some level of success should the company choose to rework its game plan.

 

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